Mooners and Shakers: Bitcoin and Ethereum grounded as US dollar takes off again
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Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently standing still on a flat, moving walkway at an airport, while others walk faster on the adjacent non-automated floor. Maybe they’re bound to stay grounded for a while.
Ah well, suppose we should be at least grateful they, and the crypto market at large, aren’t completely capitulating again. For now. That said, there are plenty of bearish headwinds about.
But what else is new? A fair bit, but, er, let’s talk about a couple of those potential bearish headwinds.
Mt. Gox fears surface… really, though?
There has been a little bit of fear resurfacing here and there about a possible impending Mt. Gox-related dump, but is that actually warranted? Mt. Gox, if you didn’t know, was a Japanese-based crypto exchange that lost about 850,000 Bitcoins in an alleged hack in 2014.
It has been reported that the Mt. Gox victims, its creditors, will this month begin to receive back some of the stolen assets, creating a fear this could induce a further crypto-market dumpathon.
Fact is, though, of those 850,000 Bitcoins, only 140k of them have been recovered, which IF all creditors were to sell, would only represent about 8% of Bitcoin’s daily sales volume. A drop in the orangey, peer-to-peer digital ocean, really. And the other thing is, those creditors have the option to receive their funds back directly in cash as well.
Sentiment could still contribute to driving crypto prices lower based on this event, of course. And speaking of crypto sentiment, it’s actually tumbled again after a spurt of positivity a few days ago.
The US dollar rising, yeah… that’s not so good for crypto
Whether it’s ethically sound to “root” for a slide of the US dollar slide or not, the fact is, a pumping greenback has largely been a pretty bleak signal for risky assets such as the magic internet money that is crypto.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) had just lately looked like it’d run out of steam and was due for an extended southbound holiday. But, as the chart in currently very bearish US crypto analyst Justin Bennett’s tweet below shows, it’s actually just broken some pretty significant resistance.
If it does rocket up to the level he’s talking about in the next few months, then crypto’s crappy 2022 might still have a ways to play out. The operative word being “if”, of course.
As ever, it’ll all largely hinge on the Fed. Recent minutes from its last FOMC meeting, in July, indicated interest-rate hiking will continue for the forseeable… but the level of hiking may start to decrease – at least from 75bps to 50, for example.
As we mentioned yesterday, though, the 2022 bulls aren’t defeated just yet. And it’s still somewhat comforting to note that even the most bearish in crypto generally tend to believe in the stuff, or at the very least Bitcoin, long term.
People like Director of Macro for investment firm Fidelity Jurrien Timmer, for instance, who reckons a US$23k BTC is cheap as chips.
Eye on digital currencies: If you believe in Bitcoin’s adoption-curve thesis (i.e. that the network will continue to expand in line with previous S-curves), then it’s reasonable to view Bitcoin as cheap at these levels. 🧵 pic.twitter.com/hEpuQTBmpG
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) August 17, 2022
Time for some price action…
Top 10 overview
With the overall crypto market cap at US$1.17 trillion and up about 0.2% since yesterday, here’s the current state of play among top 10 tokens – according to CoinGecko.
Flat City in the majors over the past 24 hours, largely. At least Ethereum (ETH) has been able to preserve some of last week’s gains, though. Well, a fraction – 0.9%, which is better than most, particularly BNB and SOL.
Dogecoin (DOGE), of course still has a hefty remnant of its recent, slobberingly good few days, which can largely be attributed to excitement based around its move into the world of smart-contract applications, with Dogechain. And that’s a kind of layer 2, Ethereum-compatible network for DeFi, NFTs, blockchain games, you name it, all enabling DOGE as a crypto, or at least an ETH-wrapped version of it.
Uppers and downers: 11–100
Sweeping a market-cap range of about US$9.26 billion to about US$455 million in the rest of the top 100, let’s find some of the biggest 24-hour gainers and losers at press time. (Stats accurate at time of publishing, based on CoinGecko.com data.)
• Gnosis (GNO), (market cap: US$513 million) +14%
• Evmos (EVMOS), (mc: US$517 million) +2%
• Celsius (CEL), (mc: US$1.2 billion) +2%
• Lido Staked Ether (STETH), (mc: US$7.7 billion) +1%
• LEO Token (LEO), (mc: US$4.95 billion) +1%
• Lido DAO (LDO), (market cap: US$1.26 billion) -9%
• Shiba Inu (SHIB), (mc: US$8 billion) -8%
• Filecoin (FIL), (mc: US$1.96 billion) -8%
• Helium (HNT), (mc: US$888 million) -6%
• Synthetix Network (SNX), (mc: US$766 million) -6%
Around the blocks: Aptos opportunity
A selection of randomness and pertinence that stuck with us on our morning moves through the Crypto Twitterverse…
Some more airdrop/free crypto “alpha” from the excellent Olimpio account. Here, he details how to potentially receive some $APTOS, which is apparently the token for a new layer 1 blockchain called… Aptos.
Aptos is currently on testnet. As opposed to mainnet, it means that it has not fully launched yet.
You can install a wallet and interact with the testnet blockchain, but money/tokens are not real.
If you are unfamiliar with Aptos, here’s a thread I madehttps://t.co/Wwj824Jw76
— olimpio ⚡️ (@OlimpioCrypto) August 18, 2022
Meanwhile, back on Bitcoin and headwinds etc, once again, here’s “Roman Trading” analysing the bearish ascending wedge pattern BTC finds itself in. He’s targeting an 18k-19k USD dip… and a potential bounce from there.
Successful breakdown and retest of our ascending wedge. Volume was decent on the breakdown which gives confirmation.
— Roman (@Roman_Trading) August 18, 2022
Hmm, yet more bearish signals…
— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) August 18, 2022
Still, there was this positive story yesterday, which is now making global crypto headlines, and you can read a bit more about it on Stockhead here…
💥BREAKING: Australian convenience store chain with +170 locations now accepts #Bitcoin
Full implementation took just 8 weeks! 🚀 pic.twitter.com/Kg0oQDqpHR
— Bitcoin Archive 🗄🚀🌔 (@BTC_Archive) August 18, 2022