Bitcoin (BTC) Investors Likely at Start of Historic Accumulation Phase, According to Messari CEO Ryan Selkis
- December 29, 2022
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Crypto intelligence firm Messari founder and CEO Ryan Selkis says that on-chain signals are flashing a buy signal for Bitcoin (BTC).
In an interview with the financial publication Barron’s, Selkis says that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator suggests investors are in the early days of a long-term accumulation phase, exhibiting behavior that’s similar to when it bottomed out in previous bearish cycles.
“An MVRV that hits 3 has meant ‘sell right now’ and a MVRV below 1 has meant ‘start accumulating’ for crypto’s entire history for Bitcoin. Where are we now? January 2015. December 2018. i.e., Sell-a-kidney-to-buy-more territory.”
MVRV is a ratio of the market capitalization of an asset relative to its realized capitalization and is used to assess whether an asset is priced above or below the fair value.
Last week, Selkis said that other bullish catalysts for Bitcoin included the halving scheduled for the first half of 2024 as well as Bitcoin’s neutrality and global acceptability.
“Bitcoin is in a historic ‘buy’ range in terms of MVRV – only seen three times in the past decade: January 2015, December 2018, and March 2020.
We’re also 18 months out from the halving, and bitcoin is the only crypto considered an ‘outside money’ candidate for USD reserve skeptics.”
Selkis also tells Barron’s that as Bitcoin starts to “act more like a credible neutral reserve asset,” it could hit a price of $500,000 once it reaches parity with gold.
“Bitcoin’s parity with gold would yield a 25x return, so there’s a lot to like in adding a 4% position in digital gold for every ounce of gold you buy. At today’s prices, Bitcoin-gold parity would bring us a $500,000 Bitcoin.”
Bitcoin is trading at $16,655 at time of writing.
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